Convective showers are hit-and-miss: one suburb soaks while another stays dry. Probability describes ensemble likelihood, not a guarantee that rain falls on your postcode.
Pair probability with intensity and timing. Light showers at 20% rarely stop a park visit; heavy cells at 50% in your exact hour might.
On meridian, prefer the next four to six hours when deciding whether to leave now. The daily “chance of rain” alone is too coarse for a picnic window.
If plans are flexible, wait for a clearer slot after the peak convective period rather than abandoning the day at the first yellow icon.
